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| Bill Gates in his own Climate House |
Bill Gates has long been one of the world's most influential voices on climate change, dedicating billions through his foundation and the Breakthrough Energy initiative to funding research and clean technology. His 2021 book, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, even laid out a roadmap for reaching net-zero emissions.
However, a recent public memo by Gates signals a notable shift in his messaging and strategic priorities, moving away from a single-minded focus on emissions reduction and "doomsday" scenarios to a more pragmatic approach centered on human welfare and adaptation.
Why the pivot? It's a change of mind about the reality of the crisis, but a recalibration of how to fight it most effectively.
1. Moving Past the "Doomsday View"
In his recent memo, Gates directly challenged the "doomsday view" that climate change will inevitably decimate civilisation. While acknowledging the serious consequences, particularly for the world's poorest, he argues that this apocalyptic framing can be paralyzing and counterproductive.
The New Tone: Gates maintains that climate change is a serious problem like malaria or malnutrition, but not an existential one that threatens humanity's survival. He believes people will still be able to "live and thrive" in most places for the foreseeable future, especially with continued innovation.
The Risk of Paralysis: For Gates, an overemphasis on catastrophic outcomes risks distracting from the tangible, near-term progress that can be made and creating despair rather than motivation.
2. Prioritizing Human Welfare: Development is Adaptation
The core of Gates’ new argument is a call for a "strategic pivot" in global climate efforts: putting human welfare and development at the center of the strategy.
The Competition for Resources: Gates points out that global aid budgets are shrinking. He argues that in a world of limited funds, investments must be prioritized where they offer the greatest impact for the most vulnerable people.
Climate Change vs. Poverty & Disease: Gates draws a stark comparison, noting that poverty-related diseases like malaria and malnutrition still cause millions of deaths annually. He famously stated he would accept a $\text{0.1}^{\circ}\text{C}$ temperature rise to eradicate malaria, emphasizing that current suffering from poverty and disease outweighs the incremental value of an extremely short-term, fractional reduction in warming.
The Power of Resilience: His key principle is "development is adaptation." A population that is healthier, better-fed, and more economically secure is far more resilient to climate shocks like heatwaves, droughts, and floods than one struggling with basic survival.
3. Innovation and the Green Premium
Gates remains a huge proponent of climate technology and innovation, particularly through his Breakthrough Energy program, but his focus is shifting to where that innovation is needed most.
Accelerating Breakthroughs: He is optimistic about the progress of clean energy like solar, wind, and batteries, which he believes have exceeded expectations.
Focusing on the "Hard" Sectors: He argues that resources must be concentrated on technologies that reduce the "Green Premium"—the higher cost of a clean alternative over a fossil-fuel-based one—in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like cement, steel, and sustainable aviation fuel. These are the areas where market forces alone won't solve the problem, requiring targeted investment.
The New Balance
Bill Gates's new stance is a retreat from climate action but an attempt to balance two massive global challenges: climate change and global poverty. He is urging a move from a feverish focus on emissions charts to a pragmatic commitment to measurable improvements in human lives.
While critics argue this shift risks reducing the urgency of emissions mitigation, Gates insists both are critical. His pivot is a challenge to global leaders and philanthropists ahead of international climate summits: Are we spending our money where it will do the most good, for the people who need it most, both today and tomorrow?
Please note Blow the Truth never will endorse Gates, He is a con artists and a Dangerous man. His views on Climate and health have already done considerable damage around the world.
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